Explore the concept of uncertainty over power in bargaining and war scenarios through this 29-minute video lecture. Delve into how uncertainty about the probability of victory can lead to conflict, building upon previous discussions of uncertainty over costs. Examine the modeling of power uncertainty, interdependent war payoffs, and the decision-making process of informed actors. Visualize these concepts and analyze the proposer's optimal demand strategy, including the implications of very small, large, and middling demands. Understand why the optimal demand must not guarantee war and grasp the risk-return tradeoff in conflict situations. This lecture provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the role of power uncertainty in international relations and conflict resolution.
Overview
Syllabus
How Uncertainty Caused War Previously.
What Is Uncertainty over Power?.
Modeling Uncertainty over Power.
Interdependent War Payoffs.
Solving the Informed Actor's Decision.
Visualizing the Informed Actor's Decision.
Solving for the Proposer's Optimal Demand.
Very Small Demands.
Very Large Demands.
Middling Demands.
Why the Optimal Demand Must Not Guarantee War.
The Risk-Return Tradeoff.
Taught by
William Spaniel
