Counterfactual Simulation in Causal Cognition

Explore a thought-provoking lecture on counterfactual simulation in causal cognition presented by Tobias Gersternberg from Stanford University at IPAM's Analyzing High-dimensional Traces of Intelligent Behavior Workshop. Delve into the fascinating world of human cognition and how we simulate counterfactual possibilities, a crucial aspect of our causal judgments, explanations, and attributions of responsibility. Discover the Counterfactual Simulation Model (CSM) and its three key ingredients: a generative mental model of the world, the ability to perform counterfactual interventions, and the capacity to simulate their consequences. Examine how the CSM applies to both physical and psychological domains, predicting people's causal judgments in various scenarios and capturing cognitive processes through eye-movement studies. Gain insights into how humans make sense of the world through cognitive operations over mental models, with a particular focus on the critical role of counterfactual simulation. Recorded on September 26, 2024, this one-hour lecture offers a comprehensive exploration of human thought processes and their implications for understanding intelligent behavior.