Going Beyond the Here and Now: Counterfactual Simulation in Human Cognition

Explore the fascinating realm of counterfactual simulation in human cognition through this 35-minute lecture by Tobias Gerstenberg from Stanford University. Delve into how humans transcend the present moment by dwelling on the past, anticipating the future, and contemplating alternative outcomes. Discover the critical role of counterfactuals in causal judgments, explanations, and attributions of responsibility. Learn about the Counterfactual Simulation Model (CSM) and its three key components: a generative mental model of the world, the ability to perform counterfactual interventions, and the capacity to simulate consequences. Examine applications of the CSM in both physical and psychological domains, including predictions of causal judgments in various scenarios and insights into cognitive processes revealed by eye-movement studies. Gain a deeper understanding of how human thought operates through mental models and the crucial role of counterfactual simulation in making sense of the world around us.