The Climate Trio: Stochastic Climate Variability, Seasonal Cycle, and El Niño

Explore the intricate dynamics of global climate systems in this 29-minute lecture by Malte Stuecker from the PCS Institute for Basic Science. Delve into the complex interplay between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), climatological seasonal cycles, and ocean mixed layer thermal inertia. Discover emerging and yet-to-be-uncovered imprints of ENSO on global climate. Examine the limitations of linear statistical methods in interpreting ENSO's relationships with other modes of climate variability. Learn about a hierarchy of conceptual models developed to delineate ENSO's widespread climate impacts and reassess observed statistical relationships. Understand the importance of accounting for seasonal phasing in linear growth/damping rates, ENSO teleconnections, and atmospheric noise forcings. Investigate how these seasonal processes affect covariance functions and power spectra of observed and simulated climate variability. Gain insights into how advancements in theoretical understanding of ENSO's complexity have improved seasonal predictions and may contribute to constraining future climate projections of the tropical Pacific.