Explore fundamental forecasting techniques and error measurement methods in this comprehensive Excel tutorial. Learn about time series analysis, the Naïve Method, and various forecast accuracy measures including Mean Forecast Error (MFE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Master the SUMPRODUCT array formula for calculating MSE, and delve into forecasting methods such as Average Past Values, Moving Average, and Exponential Smoothing. Discover how to optimize forecasts by adjusting the smoothing factor Alpha and using Solver to minimize MSE. Download the accompanying Excel file to practice these essential business analytics skills hands-on.
Basic Excel Business Analytics - Basic Forecasting Methods & Measures of Forecast Error
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Overview
Syllabus
) Naïve Method or Most Recent Method for Forecasting.
) Forecast Error and Mean Forecast Error MFE.
) Mean Absolute Forecast Error MAE. Measure of Forecast Accuracy/Error..
) Mean Square Error for Forecasting MSE for Forecasting. Measure of Forecast Accuracy/Error..
) What does Forecast Error or Accuracy measures mean?.
) Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Measure of Forecast Accuracy/Error..
) SUMPRODUCT Array Formula for calculating Mean Square Error for Forecasting.
) Average Past Values for Forecasting.
) Moving Average Method for Forecasting.
) Exponential Smoothing Method for Forecasting using Smoothing Factor Alpha..
) Change Alpha to find smallest MSE.
) Use Solver to find smallest MSE..
Taught by
ExcelIsFun
