The Individual Within the Crowd: How Individual Forecasters Contribute to Ideal Group Forecasts
Santa Fe Institute via YouTube
Overview
Syllabus
Introduction
The wisdom of the crowd
Observations
Forming wiser crowds
Bias variance tradeoff
Optimal group forecasts
Motivation
Bias
Biases
Crowd predictions
Crowd wisdom
Quantitative reasons for crowd wisdom
The system of equations
What does this mean
The problem
Solution
Statistical model
Forecaster judgment
Bias of forecaster
Properties
Simulation
Dispersion
Conclusions
Question
Taught by
Santa Fe Institute