Explore the complex landscape of future currencies in this 45-minute lecture by Lois Tullo from Novera Capital and York University. Delve into the five potential futures of currency, comparing fiat money, Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), stablecoins, and cryptocurrencies. Examine the implications of regulatory centralization, including the loss of privacy, government control through CBDC transparency, and the potential disintermediation of financial institutions. Analyze the impact of digital currencies on bank funding models, product pricing, and customer relationships. Consider the risks of cybersecurity breaches and price volatility in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Investigate the concept of a divided world due to digital currency adoption and its effects on global trade and unity. Explore scenarios of infrastructure failure and the potential for water to become a new reserve currency. Finally, discuss the implications of bio-privacy control by states and its impact on international business and movement between countries.
The Five Futures of Currency - Fiat vs CBDC, Stablecoins, & Crypto
Overview
Syllabus
Intro
Regulatory Centralization . Privacy is lost to efficiency, central governments control every facet of society through the total transparency of CBDC . It would differ from electronic transactions that happen through large commercial hanks in that it could give consumers a direct claim to the central bank similar to physical cash. • Disintermediation of Financial Institutions, changes the structure of banking, including across payments and lending with banks potentially losing sources of cheaper retail deposit funding to non-bank providers of digital currency services, shifting to a wholesale method of liquidity, Digital currencies, If widely adopted, would affect bank funding models, product pricing the competitive positioning of banks, and the nature of customer relationships including access to data on customer financial behavior • Downward pressure on cash management product lines, including debit/credit cards · Digital currency will be subject to cybersecurity breaches and may fall into the hands of hackers.
A Divided World · Digital currency divide will further separate world trade and unity of addressing complex issues such as climate change and geopolitical differences Digital currency will be subject to cybersecurity breaches and may fall into the hands of hackers • Price volatility, tied to a lack in inherent value is a major problem, and one characterizing the cryptocurrency ecosystem as a bubble. Regulatory arbitrage leads to shifts in digital adoption and increase in the difficulty of controlling money laundering and other criminal activity
Fat-tail Leads to Infrastructure Failure - Failure of the payments system leads or facilitate plobal chaos haves falling back on back-up generators, underground bunkers, and food and water storage facilities, while the billions of the poor living or dying in climate or technological holocaust - Control of digital currency after a cybersecurity breach falls into the hands of state, criminal, or activist hackers. - Water may be the new reserve currency enabled through tokenization of water reserves
BIO-Diversity - BIO privacy is controlled by the state. . There is a wide divide aver privacy regulation between countries. • BIO data is only stored in the individual's country of origin unless specific permission for sharing that data has been obtained, making international business challenging Movement between countries is significantly controlled or limited through BIO identification
Taught by
Fields Institute
