Explore a comprehensive lecture on the mathematical modeling of viral zoonotic infectious diseases transmitted from wildlife to humans. Delve into the concept of zoonosis, its historical context, and the significance of emerging and re-emerging diseases resulting from animal-to-human spillover. Examine the four stages necessary for virus transmission and maintenance in reservoir hosts, and learn how Markov Chain models and Branching Process Theory are applied to estimate spillover probabilities. Discover the impact of periodic probabilities on spillover events and understand the importance of mathematical models in comprehending the complexities of wildlife zoonoses. Gain insights into the collaborative efforts required for addressing zoonoses and ensuring public health safety.
Modeling of Viral Zoonotic Infectious Diseases from Wildlife to Humans
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Overview
Syllabus
Intro
The term "Zoonosis" was first used by Rudolf Virchow, a Pioneer in Cellular Pathology
Many Emerging and Re-Emerging Diseases are a Result of a Spillower from Animals to Humans
According to the CDC Website, there are Eight Priority Zoonoses in the United States.
Many Emerging Zoonoses from Wikillife are Spread from cither a Natural Reservoir or an Intermediate Host.
Four Stages are Necessary for Transmission and Maintenance of the Virus in the Reservoir Host.
Markow Chain Models Indicate Sporadic Cases of Infection in the Spillower Population.
Branching Proc Theory can be used to obtain an Analytical Approximation for Probability of Spillower
Application of the Backward Kolmogoro Differential Equation Leads to an Estimate for the Probability of No Spillover as a Function of to
Branching Process Theory Leads to an Estimate for the Probability of Spillover.
The Average Values of the Periodic Probabilities Differ Significantly from Probabilities Computed from the Average Parameter Values.
The Periodic Probability of Spillover is Computed from the Branching Process Approximation and Checked with Simulations of the Marko Chain
The Probability of Spillover is Computed from the Branching Process Approximation and Checked with Simulations of the Marlow Chain.
Mathematical Models Help us Understand the Effects of Multiple Species, Multiple Hosts, Direct and Indirect Transmission, and Environmental Conditions on Wildlife Zoonoses
Zoonoses and Public Health Safety Require Collaboration, Cooperation, and Education
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