Intraday Solar Power Forecasting: Methods and Applications

Explore the challenges and advancements in intraday solar power forecasting in this 44-minute lecture by Sylvain Cros from the Laboratoire de météorologie dynamique at École polytechnique, Palaiseau. Delve into the complexities of predicting photovoltaic (PV) power generation due to Earth's rotation and cloud movements, and understand the limitations these factors impose on grid stability. Examine the crucial role of solar power forecasting in optimizing PV grid integration, including strategies for energy compensation, storage sizing, demand-side management, and electricity trading. Learn about the shortcomings of traditional meteorological models in accurately forecasting solar irradiance for intraday time horizons, and discover promising alternative techniques utilizing geostationary satellite and all-sky camera observations. Gain insights into how these new methods are addressing the needs of emerging grid configurations, such as microgrid self-consumption optimization and aggregator portfolio valorization for intraday markets.