Successful Predictions in Climate Science - Tyndall Lecture

Explore a comprehensive examination of successful predictions in climate science through this 57-minute Tyndall Lecture from the 2012 AGU Fall Meeting. Delve into the challenges of testing hypotheses in observational sciences, particularly in the context of anthropogenic global warming. Discover how climate theories are validated through additional predictions verified against observations not used in their initial formulation. Examine key predictions in Earth and planetary climate, including the effects of fossil fuel burning on atmospheric CO2 and subsequent tropospheric warming. Learn about early climate modeling work, spatial patterns of global change, and predictions related to water vapor feedback, volcanic eruptions, and ocean heat uptake. Gain insights into the interplay between astrophysics and terrestrial climate science, including discoveries about Mars and Venus atmospheres and implications for exoplanet research. Analyze the track record of climate change predictions, discussing both successes and rare instances of failed predictions in the field.