Explore climate tipping points in this comprehensive 58-minute lecture by Tim Lenton from the International Centre for Theoretical Sciences. Delve into the concept of critical transitions in complex systems, focusing on climate-related tipping elements. Examine global and regional climate tipping points, their interconnections, and potential cascading effects. Learn about early warning signals for tipping points, including critical slowing down and remotely sensed changes in ecosystem resilience. Analyze case studies on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Amazon rainforest. Gain insights into the latest research on climate tipping points and their implications for future climate change scenarios.
Overview
Syllabus
Climate Tipping Points
Generic example of passing a tipping point
Climate tipping elements
Global Systems Institute
Abrupt changes in CMIPS climate models
Changing risk assessment of tipping points
Global 'core' climate tripping elements
Regional 'impact' climate tipping elements
Coupling between tipping elements
Monsoon instability ?
Indian summer monsoon aerosol forcing
Cascading abrupt change across systems: Onset of the Bolling-Allerod warm period
Effect of a climate tipping point on GB agriculture
The problem
Critical slowing down
End of the last ice age
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation AMOC modelled collapse
'FAMOUS' AOGCM
Where is the best early warning? How early is it?
AMOC SST fingerprint
Amazon rainforest
Remotely sensing the changing resilience of the Amazon rainforest
Loss of resilience of the Amazon rainforest
Dependence on mean annual precipitation
Distance from human activities
West Amazon hu rainfall
Summary
Thanks for listening!
Q&A
Wrap Up
Taught by
International Centre for Theoretical Sciences
