Challenges in Monsoon Prediction and Forecasting Methods

Explore a comprehensive lecture on the complexities and challenges of monsoon prediction delivered by M Rajeevan at the International Centre for Theoretical Sciences. Delve into the intricate dynamics of monsoon systems, from cloud cluster formation to large-scale atmospheric phenomena like the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), cyclones, and the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). Learn about the multiscale nature of cloud formations, ranging from local turbulent clusters to massive organized cloud bands, and understand how these systems interact through cloud-circulation feedbacks. Examine the unresolved questions surrounding monsoon convection organization across various time scales, covering key topics such as geophysical fluid dynamics of moist flows, physics of convective organization, and monsoon convection variability. Gain insights into advanced concepts including shallow water equations, two-layer models, moist dynamics on equatorial beta plane, waves and instabilities, convective aggregation, and the latest data-driven approaches to understanding and forecasting monsoon patterns.