From Determinism to Probability: Development of Ensemble Forecasting in Weather and Climate Prediction

Watch a 43-minute lecture from the 4th Kyoto University-Inamori Foundation Joint Kyoto Prize Symposium where Tim Palmer, Royal Society Research Professor at Oxford University, explores the evolution from deterministic to probabilistic approaches in weather and climate forecasting. Learn about the historical development of weather prediction from Babylonian times through the digital age, and discover how chaos theory revealed the inherent limitations of deterministic forecasting. Understand the groundbreaking concept of ensemble forecasting, which involves running multiple weather prediction models with slightly different initial conditions and model equations to generate probabilistic forecasts. Explore how Palmer led the implementation of ensemble forecasting at both the UK Met Office and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), developing innovative techniques like singular vectors and stochastic parameterization to improve forecast reliability. Gain insights into how ensemble forecasting has revolutionized meteorological science, becoming the standard tool for everything from short-term weather predictions to long-term climate change projections in the 21st century.