This course assumes that you are comfortable with Microsoft Excel, but you do not need training in statistics. If you wish to receive a verified certificate, you must download the free SIPmath™ Modeler Tools for Excel from nonprofit ProbabilityManagement.org, and it is recommended that you procure The Flaw of Averages: Why we Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, John Wiley & Sons, either the 1st or 2nd Edition.
Overview
Syllabus
Section 1: Probability Management Basics
- Post Traumatic Statistics Disorder (PTSD)
- The Flaw of Averages
- The Arithmetic of Uncertainty
- Limbic Analytics: Connecting the Seat of the Intellect to the Seat of the Pants
- The Hindu/Arabic Numerals of Uncertainty
- The Probability Power Grid
- Data Table Simulation in Excel
Section 2: The Five Mindles of Uncertainty
A MINDle lets you grasp something with your mind as a HANDle lets you grasp something with your hand. Understanding the arithmetic of uncertainty requires grasping five concepts beyond the operations of standard arithmetic. They are:
- Risk vs. Uncertainty
- Uncertain Numbers
- Combinations of Uncertainties
- Plans Based on Uncertainties
- Interrelated Uncertainties
Section 3: Introduction to Applications
- Nonlinear cost functions
- Building a Risk Model
- Estimating distributions from forecasts
Section 4: The Human Element
The PTSD picked up in a statistics class may be addressed through the following concepts:
- The permission to be uncertain
- Unambiguous Uncertainty
- Limbic Analytics
Taught by
Sam Savage
