This free course introduces basic ideas of probability. It focuses on dealing with uncertainty in a financial context and explores decision trees, a powerful decision-making technique, which can help you to simplify and formulate business decisions. The course also includes videos that introduce the key ideas and guide you through numerous examples.
Overview
Syllabus
- Introduction
- Learning outcomes
- 1 Dealing with uncertainty: an introduction to probability
- 1 Dealing with uncertainty: an introduction to probability
- 2 Check your understanding of probability
- 2 Check your understanding of probability
- 3 Expected values
- 3 Expected values
- 4 Decision trees
- 4 Decision trees
- 4.1 Decision trees and expected value
- 4.2 A complex decision tree – deciding whether or not to launch a product early
- 4.3 A complex decision tree – developing a new pharmaceutical drug
- Conclusion
- References
- Acknowledgements
