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The Individual Within the Crowd: How Individual Forecasters Contribute to Ideal Group Forecasts
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- 1 Introduction
- 2 The wisdom of the crowd
- 3 Observations
- 4 Forming wiser crowds
- 5 Bias variance tradeoff
- 6 Optimal group forecasts
- 7 Motivation
- 8 Bias
- 9 Biases
- 10 Crowd predictions
- 11 Crowd wisdom
- 12 Quantitative reasons for crowd wisdom
- 13 The system of equations
- 14 What does this mean
- 15 The problem
- 16 Solution
- 17 Statistical model
- 18 Forecaster judgment
- 19 Bias of forecaster
- 20 Properties
- 21 Simulation
- 22 Dispersion
- 23 Conclusions
- 24 Question
