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Mathematical Models Help us Understand the Effects of Multiple Species, Multiple Hosts, Direct and Indirect Transmission, and Environmental Conditions on Wildlife Zoonoses
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Modeling of Viral Zoonotic Infectious Diseases from Wildlife to Humans
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- 1 Intro
- 2 The term "Zoonosis" was first used by Rudolf Virchow, a Pioneer in Cellular Pathology
- 3 Many Emerging and Re-Emerging Diseases are a Result of a Spillower from Animals to Humans
- 4 According to the CDC Website, there are Eight Priority Zoonoses in the United States.
- 5 Many Emerging Zoonoses from Wikillife are Spread from cither a Natural Reservoir or an Intermediate Host.
- 6 Four Stages are Necessary for Transmission and Maintenance of the Virus in the Reservoir Host.
- 7 Markow Chain Models Indicate Sporadic Cases of Infection in the Spillower Population.
- 8 Branching Proc Theory can be used to obtain an Analytical Approximation for Probability of Spillower
- 9 Application of the Backward Kolmogoro Differential Equation Leads to an Estimate for the Probability of No Spillover as a Function of to
- 10 Branching Process Theory Leads to an Estimate for the Probability of Spillover.
- 11 The Average Values of the Periodic Probabilities Differ Significantly from Probabilities Computed from the Average Parameter Values.
- 12 The Periodic Probability of Spillover is Computed from the Branching Process Approximation and Checked with Simulations of the Marko Chain
- 13 The Probability of Spillover is Computed from the Branching Process Approximation and Checked with Simulations of the Marlow Chain.
- 14 Mathematical Models Help us Understand the Effects of Multiple Species, Multiple Hosts, Direct and Indirect Transmission, and Environmental Conditions on Wildlife Zoonoses
- 15 Zoonoses and Public Health Safety Require Collaboration, Cooperation, and Education
