Dream Cheating Scandal - Explaining All the Math Simply

Dream Cheating Scandal - Explaining All the Math Simply

Mathemaniac via YouTube Direct link

Outro and endcard stuff

13 of 19

13 of 19

Outro and endcard stuff

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Dream Cheating Scandal - Explaining All the Math Simply

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  1. 1 Disclaimer
  2. 2 Background of the drama
  3. 3 Binomial distribution
  4. 4 Applying binomial distribution
  5. 5 Bias 1: Stopping criterion
  6. 6 Bias 2: Stream selection bias
  7. 7 Bias 3: Runner selection bias
  8. 8 Bias 4: p-hacking
  9. 9 Mod team math summary
  10. 10 Main criticism from astrophysicist
  11. 11 Minor criticisms from astrophysicist
  12. 12 Blatant mistake of astrophysicist
  13. 13 Outro and endcard stuff
  14. 14 : p-values mean getting AT LEAST as lucky as these success rates, not just as lucky.
  15. 15 : The streams aren't exactly independent, so this is not an exact answer, but it works as an overestimate nonetheless because they are positively correlated; if you are not convinced, you can also co…
  16. 16 : I said 1.19 * 10^(-12), but the figure shown on screen is correct: 1.19*10^(-11).
  17. 17 : 1000 is the UPPER BOUND, not an estimation
  18. 18 : This is based on the faulty assumption that all speedrun attempts are streamed.
  19. 19 : The astrophysicist's 1 in 6300 is somewhat close to the chance of 18 heads in a row, or 19 of heads or tails in a row, so maybe some coding mistakes, or that he is exceptionally lucky in obtaining …

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