Contained Chaos - Ensemble Consistency Testing for the Community Earth System Model

Contained Chaos - Ensemble Consistency Testing for the Community Earth System Model

Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics via YouTube Direct link

Do we really need year-long runs?

14 of 25

14 of 25

Do we really need year-long runs?

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Contained Chaos - Ensemble Consistency Testing for the Community Earth System Model

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  1. 1 Intro
  2. 2 The National Center for Atmospheric Research
  3. 3 Community Earth System Model (CESM)
  4. 4 Need for Software Quality Assurance
  5. 5 Motivation
  6. 6 Evaluating the difference
  7. 7 Our new approach: Ensemble Consistency Test
  8. 8 Ensemble Consistency Test (ECT)
  9. 9 Creation of and comparison with ensemble
  10. 10 Quantity ensemble variability
  11. 11 Hypothesis Testing based on Principal Components
  12. 12 ECT Procedure
  13. 13 How wel does CAM ECT work?
  14. 14 Do we really need year-long runs?
  15. 15 Counterexample 1: HYDRO-BASEFLOW
  16. 16 Counterexample 2: RAND
  17. 17 UF-CAM-ECT and CAM-ECT
  18. 18 A highly accurate test leads to new challenges...
  19. 19 First step: identify affected variables
  20. 20 Next: convert source code to directed graph
  21. 21 Looking at the statistical details of the ECT.
  22. 22 The ECT scheme viewed as a series of RVS
  23. 23 Illustration of estimation bias of eigenvalues
  24. 24 Estimator and ensemble size effect on false positive rate
  25. 25 Alternative estimators for different ensemble sizes

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